chapter5_思维导图模板

Chpater 5 Macroeconomic Adjustmet and Control of Financial System

Inflation Targeting通货膨胀目标制
调整货币政策来实现特定的年通货膨胀率（2%-3% range）

The ultimate goals of monetary policy
货币政策的最终目标

money value stabilization
货币价值稳定

Full employment
充分就业

Economic growth
经济增长

Balance of international payments
国际收支平衡

Financial stability
金融稳定

Primary connotation of Inflation targeting
通货膨胀目标制的基本内涵

Central Bank sets down the target inflation rate and publicly announces it. And then Central Bank can take various policy means with flexible use to achieve this one target.
中央银行设定目标通货膨胀率并公开宣布。然后中央银行可以
采取各种灵活使用的政策手段来实现这一目标。

basic ideas
基本思想

Recognition of the objective existence of inflation
对通货膨胀客观存在的认识

Admitting economic growth accompanying with the certain degree of inflation
承认经济增长伴随着一定程度的通
货膨胀

Both hyperinflation and deflation will make against economic development
恶性通货膨胀和通货紧缩都将不利
于经济发展

essence of inflation targeting
实质

Central Bank permits a low inflation rate which will make for economic growth
中央银行允许一个有利于经济增长的低通货膨胀率

publicly announced can make the Central Bank’s policy objective explicit and increase the transparency of policy
并公开公布，可以使中央银行的政策目标更加明确，增加政策的透明度

obtaining the public trust and thereby weakening the public expectation to the offsets on the effect of monetary policy
获得公众的信任，从而减弱公众对货币政策效果的预期

The design of inflation target
通胀目标的设计

Pegging way

The most basic way is to peg CPI

Objectives and realization time
目标和实现时间

Publication of target

Monitoring of target

Operation of inflation target
通胀目标的操作

Prediction plays a key role on the Inflation Targeting policy.

Advantage and Disadvantage
优缺点

Advantage

(1) Pegged挂钩 to the rate of inflation "Nominal Anchor" advantage
using nominal anchor as intermediate target to achieve the ultimate goals of monetary policy such as price stability.
（锁定通货膨胀率、汇率、货币供应量等名义变量等价格水平）

nominal exchange rate
名义汇率

nominal interest rate
名义利率

monetary supply
货币供应

pegging inflation rate
盯住通货膨胀率

(2) Pegging盯住 inflation rate “anchors” advantages

basic elements of one successful pegged system

flexibility
可以运用多种锚

transparency
为大众所接受

accountability
问责，对央行形成约束

(3) Reduction of the Time-Inconsistency Problem
减少时间不一致问题

Inflation preference
通货膨胀偏好

1.elastic pegging Inflation Target
弹性挂钩通胀目标

(4) Improved Performance

From a theoretical standpoint：Romer（1993）pointed out that inflation rate depended on a country’s opening degree.
Romer(1993)指出，通货膨胀率取决于一国的开放程度

disadvantage

(1)delayed signaling
延迟信号

(2)too much rigidity
过于僵硬

(3)the potential for increased output fluctuations
产出波动加剧的可能性

(4)low economic growth
经济增长缓慢

The significance of Inflation Targeting
通货膨胀目标制的意义

no contradiction between adjusting monetary policy and winning public’s sustaining trust
消除调整货币政策和赢得群众信任的矛盾

monetary authorities can make corresponding response to all kinds of shocks in the case that public do not significantly change their expectation
货币当局在公众预期没有明显
改变的情况下，对各种冲击做出相应的反应

Interest rate corridor
利率走廊

概念：Central Bank determines its own deposit and loan interest rates，interbank offered rates will balanced，then one half of the total amount of deposit and loan rate

Interest decrease and discount rate
利率和拆解率

Interest decrease if it higher than discount rate

Interest increase if it lows than interest rate depositing in the central bank

Why can Central Bank adjust interbank offered rate in one half place of the sum of two interest rate through controlling its own deposit and loan rates?
为什么中央银行可以通过控制自己的存贷款利率，把银行间
同业拆借利率调整到两个利率总和的一半?

balance between actual interest rate and Central Bank loan interest rate is the earnings for borrowing money banks
实际提供的利率与中央银行贷款利率之间的差额是借款银行的收益
balance between actual interest rate and Central Bank deposit interest rate is the earnings for lending money banks
实际提供的利率与中央银行存款利率之间的差额是贷款银行的收益

等于零可能有三种可能性

commercial bank’s deposit at central bank is equal to the funds drawn out of market by Central Bank
商业银行在央行的存款等于中央银行从市场提取的资金

commercial bank’s overdraft to Central Bank is equal to Central Bank’s injecting capital
商业银行对中央银行的透支等于中央银行的注资

commercial bank hasn’t any deposit at Central Bank and Central Bank doesn’t inject any money to call market.
商业银行在中央银行没有存款，中央银行也不向市场注入资金

Why is there only the third possibility?

因为中央银行贷款利率高于银行间的同业拆借利率，存款利率低于同业拆借利率，所以商业银行为了追求利润最大化更愿意在银行间市场借贷。决定了中央银行既不向看涨市场注入资金，也不吸收资金
commercial bank profit maximization willing to lend or borrow money in interbank market rather than deposit or lend to Central Bank

Actual operation of interest rate corridor regulation
调控的实际操作

1.Pegging money supply=0, interest rate may deviate from the target rate and be the upper limit or lower limit of interest rate corridor
挂钩货币供应量=0，利率可能偏离目标利率，成为利率走廊的上限或下限

2.Both pegging target rate in the one half place of Central Bank deposit and loan rate and by repurchase making money supply=0
将目标利率固定在中央银行存贷款利率的一半位置，并通过回购使货币供应量=0

Regulate interest rate corridor and Inflation Targeting
调节利率走廊和通货膨胀目标制

关系：The countries which apply interest rate corridor
mostly implement Inflation Targeting .
Interest rate corridor is a better way to implement Inflation Targeting

Advantages of interest rate corridor
利率走廊优势

1）cost of interest rate lower
The cost of interest rate corridor is much lower than open market operation because Central Bank needn’t require to do massive high buy and low sell debts and just need do deposit and loan business.

2）market mechanism play
Interest rate corridor can give more play of the market mechanism than open market operation because it can realize the balance of offered rate as bring about the equal of capital supply & demand.

3）more direct, transparent and effective
Interest rate corridor can give more play of the market mechanism than open market operation because it can realize the balance of offered rate as bring about the equal of capital supply & demand.

4）more beneficial to prompt public expectations
Interest rate corridor is more beneficial to prompt public to form stable reasonable expectations than open market operation because it is open and clear that will not provide misleading signal.

5）Central Bank’s policy
more beneficial to develop open mouth operation
Interest rate corridor is more beneficial to develop open mouth operation than open market operation because its basic operation model is to express Central Bank’s policy intention and to influence public expectations.

6）less relies on developed
Interest rate corridor less relies on developed and mature market than open market operation because it needn’t through buying and selling lots of national debts to change money supply.

7）more beneficial to implement Inflation Targeting
Interest rate corridor is more beneficial to implement Inflation Targeting than open market operation because it changes interest rate directly, which needn’t change money supply.

chapter5

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